CBN Survey Shows Nigerians Expect Inflation to Ease Over Next Six Months

Nigerians Expect Inflation to Slow Despite Persistent Cost Pressures

Nigerians continue to perceive inflation as a major economic challenge, but growing numbers of households and businesses expect price pressures to moderate over the next six months, according to the latest Inflation Expectations Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The findings suggest that while inflation remains a significant concern across the economy, confidence is gradually improving that recent monetary and economic reforms could help stabilise prices in the medium term.

The survey revealed that the Inflation Expectations Index stood at 44.8 points in May 2026, indicating that respondents still consider inflation to be elevated. However, expectations for future inflation improved considerably, with the six-month forward Inflation Expectations Index moderating to 26.2 points, reflecting optimism that price growth will slow over time.

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Inflation Perceptions Remain High Across the Economy

Despite expectations of future improvement, a substantial majority of Nigerians continue to experience the effects of rising prices in their daily lives and business operations.

According to the survey, the proportion of businesses that perceived inflation as high increased from 65.9% in April to 68.4% in May 2026. Among households, the figure rose even further, climbing from 68.8% to 72.8% during the same period. This suggests that many Nigerians are still facing significant cost pressures despite recent moderation in headline inflation figures.

Large businesses reported the highest inflation perception rate at 72.5%, while medium-sized enterprises recorded the lowest level at 64.0%. The findings indicate that inflationary pressures continue to affect businesses of all sizes, albeit with varying degrees of intensity.

Rural Households and Low-Income Earners Feel Greater Impact

The survey highlighted notable differences in how inflation is experienced across income groups and geographic locations.

Rural households reported higher inflation perceptions than their urban counterparts. Approximately 74.8% of rural respondents described inflation as high, compared with 71.5% of urban residents. This gap reflects the greater vulnerability of rural communities to rising transportation, food, and energy costs.

Income levels also played a significant role. Households earning below ₦70,000 per month recorded the highest perception of inflation at 73.9%, underscoring the disproportionate impact of rising prices on lower-income Nigerians. Previous CBN surveys have consistently shown that lower-income groups face the greatest pressure from increases in food, transportation, and utility costs.

Energy Costs, Exchange Rates and Insecurity Remain Key Drivers

Respondents identified several factors that continue to influence inflation expectations across the country.

Energy costs emerged as one of the most significant concerns, alongside interest rates, exchange rate movements, and insecurity. These factors were cited as the primary drivers shaping perceptions of inflation among both households and businesses.

The findings reinforce broader economic concerns surrounding the cost of power generation, transportation, logistics, and imported goods. Exchange rate fluctuations continue to affect production costs and consumer prices, while insecurity in some regions contributes to supply chain disruptions and higher food prices.

Industry analysts have repeatedly noted that many of Nigeria's inflationary pressures stem from structural and supply-side constraints rather than excessive consumer demand. These include infrastructure deficits, logistics challenges, energy costs, and agricultural supply disruptions.

Businesses Continue to Face Rising Operating Costs

The survey also examined expenditure patterns among businesses and households.

Results showed that 69.5% of businesses reported increased expenditure during the review period, compared with 61.0% of households. This suggests that companies continue to face rising operating costs, which may eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices.

The elevated cost environment remains a challenge for many firms, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises that operate with limited margins and are highly sensitive to changes in energy, transportation, and financing costs.

Strong Public Engagement With Monetary Policy

One of the notable findings from the survey was the high level of public engagement with monetary policy developments.

According to the report, 92.3% of respondents indicated that they closely follow CBN communications, including interest rate decisions and inflation-related announcements, through social media, television, radio, and online news platforms.

The result highlights growing public awareness of the relationship between monetary policy and economic conditions, particularly as interest rates and inflation continue to influence borrowing costs, household spending, and business investment decisions.

Inflation Trends Show Signs of Improvement

The survey comes as recent data point to a gradual moderation in inflation compared with the exceptionally high levels recorded in previous years.

According to recent figures cited by Nairametrics, Nigeria's headline inflation rate rose slightly to 15.69% in April 2026 from 15.38% in March. While this represented a monthly increase, inflation remains significantly below levels recorded during the peak inflationary period of 2024 and early 2025. Food inflation also eased considerably compared with the previous year.

The CBN has maintained a tight monetary policy stance in recent years to curb inflation and stabilise the foreign exchange market. Although respondents continue to report elevated price pressures, the latest survey suggests confidence is gradually building that inflation may continue to moderate over the coming months.

Outlook

The latest CBN Inflation Expectations Survey presents a mixed picture of Nigeria's economic environment. While households and businesses continue to experience high prices and rising costs, there is increasing optimism that inflationary pressures will ease over the next six months.

For policymakers, the findings suggest that confidence in ongoing reforms is improving, although concerns about energy costs, exchange rate volatility, insecurity, and business expenses remain significant. The challenge for authorities will be sustaining the recent progress on inflation while supporting economic growth, investment, and household purchasing power.

If current monetary and fiscal measures continue to stabilise key economic indicators, expectations of lower inflation could gradually translate into improved consumer confidence and stronger economic activity in the months ahead.

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