Nigeria’s Petrol Imports Surge 96.6% to 5.9 Million Litres in March - NMDPRA

Petrol Imports Spike in March as Refinery Output Drops

Nigeria’s daily petrol imports rose sharply by 96.6% to 5.9 million litres in March 2026, up from 3.0 million litres in February, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The increase comes amid a decline in domestic refinery output, underscoring persistent supply constraints in the country’s downstream petroleum sector.

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Import Surge Reflects Supply Adjustment

The near doubling of petrol imports in March signals a short-term adjustment to bridge supply gaps created by reduced domestic output. NMDPRA data shows that while imports increased significantly month-on-month, they remain substantially lower on a year-on-year basis down 79.4% from 28.7 million litres per day recorded in March 2025.

This trend highlights a transitional phase in Nigeria’s fuel supply dynamics, where local refining is expanding but not yet consistently meeting national demand.

Decline in Domestic Refinery Output

Domestic petrol supply fell by 2.3 million litres per day, or 6.3%, to 34.2 million litres in March, compared to 36.5 million litres in February.

During the period, the Dangote Refinery remained the sole significant domestic supplier of petrol, while state-owned refineries operated by NNPC Limited remained inactive.

The drop in local output contributed directly to the increased reliance on imports to stabilise overall supply levels.

Total Supply and Consumption Trends

Total petrol supply stood at 40.1 million litres per day in March, representing a slight decline of 1.5% from February’s 40.5 million litres per day.

Meanwhile, national consumption dropped significantly to 47.3 million litres per day, down from 56.9 million litres in February.

The decline in demand reflects pricing pressures and broader economic factors influencing fuel consumption patterns.

Inventory Pressure and Market Dynamics

Fuel stock sufficiency declined from 30.7 days in February to 21.2 days in March, indicating tighter inventory levels despite increased imports.

This suggests that supply remains closely matched to demand, leaving limited buffer capacity in the system. Analysts note that such conditions increase vulnerability to supply disruptions and price volatility.

Broader Energy Market Implications

Transition to Local Refining

Nigeria’s strategy under the Petroleum Industry Act prioritises domestic refining, with import licences issued only when local production falls short. Recent regulatory actions have aimed to reduce reliance on imports and support local capacity growth.

Structural Supply Challenges

Despite progress, the data underscores ongoing structural challenges, including refinery downtime, infrastructure constraints, and pricing dynamics that affect both supply and demand.

Role of the Dangote Refinery

The Dangote Refinery continues to play a central role in stabilising domestic supply. However, current output levels are not yet sufficient to fully eliminate the need for imports, particularly during periods of fluctuating production.

The 96.6% surge in petrol imports to 5.9 million litres per day in March reflects a balancing act within Nigeria’s evolving energy landscape. While domestic refining capacity is expanding, short-term supply gaps persist, requiring continued reliance on imports.

For policymakers and investors, the data highlights the importance of sustaining refinery operations, improving infrastructure, and ensuring regulatory consistency to achieve long-term energy security and reduce import dependence.

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