NRS Says Nigeria’s Economy Rebounds on Gains from Tinubu’s Reforms

NRS highlights economic recovery

The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) says Nigeria’s economy is gradually recovering from recent economic pressures, citing retreating inflation, stronger oil production, improved external balances, higher tax collections and a stronger capital market as evidence of the recovery.

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The revenue agency also pointed to Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of petroleum products and rising crude oil production as key developments supporting the country’s economic outlook.

NRS highlights improvements across key economic indicators

According to the NRS, several economic indicators have improved since the Federal Government introduced its reform programme.

The agency cited declining inflation, a turnaround in the balance of payments from deficit to surplus, increased oil production and stronger tax collections among the developments supporting its assessment of the economy.

The NRS also highlighted developments in the capital market, where market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) increased from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.

The agency presented these developments as evidence that the reforms are beginning to produce broader macroeconomic effects.

Oil production rises to 1.73 million barrels per day

The petroleum sector represents one of the major areas of improvement identified by the NRS.

Nigeria’s oil production increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, according to the report.

The July production level represents about 104 per cent of Nigeria’s Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota.

Higher production provides additional support for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, while improved domestic refining capacity has also changed Nigeria’s position in the petroleum products market.

Nigeria has increasingly shifted towards supplying refined petroleum products rather than relying solely on crude exports.

Nigeria emerges as net exporter of petroleum products

The NRS identified Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of petroleum products as another significant development.

The change follows increased domestic refining capacity, particularly as locally refined petroleum products become more available.

For the economy, increased domestic refining can reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and improve the value retained within the domestic energy sector.

It can also support related industries, including logistics, manufacturing and industrial services.

Tax collections strengthen government revenue

The NRS also cited stronger tax collections as evidence of improved fiscal capacity.

Higher revenue gives governments greater capacity to finance infrastructure and public services while reducing dependence on borrowing.

For the housing and construction sectors, stronger government revenue can support spending on roads, transport infrastructure, utilities and housing programmes.

However, the effectiveness of increased revenue will depend on how efficiently government deploys the additional resources and whether spending translates into productive infrastructure and improved public services.

Minimum wage doubles between 2023 and 2026

The report also noted that Nigeria’s minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026.

The increase forms part of efforts to improve household incomes amid the higher cost of living associated with the country's economic adjustment.

The NRS also pointed to government policies and incentives that contributed to a reduction in the estimated number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, according to UNICEF estimates.

These social indicators remain important in assessing whether macroeconomic improvements are translating into broader household benefits.

Capital market records significant expansion

The NRS highlighted the performance of Nigeria’s capital market as another indicator of increased investor activity.

Market capitalisation of the NGX rose from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.

A deeper capital market can provide companies with additional avenues for raising funds outside traditional bank lending.

For property and construction companies, stronger capital markets could eventually support access to longer-term financing for large-scale projects, depending on investor appetite and market conditions.

Economic recovery has implications for housing

Improved macroeconomic conditions could have important implications for Nigeria’s housing and real estate market.

Higher oil production and government revenue can strengthen public finances and create additional capacity for infrastructure investment. Better infrastructure, in turn, can improve the attractiveness of emerging residential and commercial locations.

A stronger capital market could also create opportunities for real estate investment vehicles and developers seeking alternative sources of funding.

However, housing affordability remains closely linked to household incomes, inflation, construction costs and mortgage rates. Economic recovery therefore needs to translate into stronger purchasing power and more affordable financing before its benefits become widely visible in the housing market.

Reforms face test of translating gains into household welfare

The indicators cited by the NRS point to improvements in several areas of the economy, but the recovery remains subject to the experience of households and businesses.

Lower inflation, stronger government revenue and increased oil production can improve macroeconomic stability, but their wider impact depends on how quickly they translate into lower living costs, higher real incomes, improved access to credit and increased economic activity.

For businesses, the cost of financing and access to foreign exchange will remain important factors influencing investment decisions.

For households, the affordability of housing, food, transport and other essential goods will remain a key measure of whether the broader economic recovery is being felt at the individual level.

Outlook

The NRS says Nigeria’s economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by stronger oil production, improved external balances, higher revenue collections, increased refining activity and capital-market growth.

For the housing and real estate sectors, the sustainability of these gains will be important. Continued improvements in public revenue, infrastructure investment, household incomes and access to finance could strengthen property-market activity, while persistent affordability pressures could limit demand.

The next phase of the reform programme will therefore be measured not only by macroeconomic indicators but also by its ability to improve investment conditions and expand economic opportunities for households and businesses.

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