Food Inflation Hits 20.31% in July, Highest Since September 2025

Food inflation hits 20.31% in July

Nigeria’s food inflation rate rose sharply to 20.31% year-on-year in July 2026, its highest level since September 2025, even as headline inflation eased to 15.43% during the month.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that food inflation increased from 17.52% in June to 20.31% in July. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation also accelerated to 5.56% from 3.75% in June.

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Food inflation accelerates despite lower headline rate

The July data presents a divergence between overall inflation and food prices.

Headline inflation declined by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91% in June to 15.43% in July. However, food inflation moved in the opposite direction, rising by 2.79 percentage points to 20.31%.

The latest increase marks the continuation of a rising food-inflation trend that began earlier in 2026. Food inflation increased from 8.89% in January to 12.12% in February, 14.31% in March, 16.06% in April, 16.96% in May and 17.52% in June before reaching 20.31% in July.

Rising food prices increase household pressure

The acceleration in food prices is significant because food represents a major component of household expenditure.

The NBS attributed changes in July food prices to increases in items including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

While the year-on-year rate remained below the 26.20% recorded in July 2025, the monthly acceleration indicates renewed pressure on household food budgets.

Food inflation crosses 20% threshold

The July figure represents the first time food inflation has crossed the 20% mark since February 2021, according to reports citing the NBS data.

The increase also makes food prices one of the most significant sources of pressure on household finances, despite the moderation recorded in overall inflation.

For households already allocating a substantial portion of their income to essential goods and services, higher food costs can reduce the amount available for other expenses, including rent, transportation, education and housing-related payments.

Implications for housing affordability

The rise in food inflation has an indirect but important connection with Nigeria’s housing market.

When households spend more of their income on food, their disposable income for rent, mortgage payments, home improvements and property purchases can decline.

This could further weaken housing affordability, particularly for lower- and middle-income households already facing elevated rents and construction costs.

For developers and property investors, persistent household cost pressures can also affect demand for new homes. Prospective buyers may postpone purchases or opt for smaller and less expensive properties when essential living costs consume more of their income.

Regional differences remain significant

The NBS data also shows that food-price pressures vary considerably across the country.

On a month-on-month basis, Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation at 17.02% in July, followed by Lagos at 13.48% and Borno at 13.26%. Jigawa, Kebbi and Bauchi recorded negative month-on-month food inflation rates during the period.

These differences reflect the varying effects of supply conditions, transportation costs, agricultural production and market access across states.

Construction and property markets face wider cost pressures

The latest food inflation data comes against a broader backdrop of elevated household and business costs.

For the housing sector, rising food prices can compound existing affordability challenges created by expensive building materials, land and financing.

Higher living costs can reduce household capacity to save for home purchases, while higher operating costs can affect developers' ability to deliver projects at prices accessible to consumers.

The combination of these pressures makes the relationship between inflation, household income and housing demand increasingly important for policymakers and market participants.

Headline inflation provides mixed signal

The decline in headline inflation to 15.43% provides some evidence that overall price pressures are moderating.

However, the sharp increase in food inflation shows that the broader improvement has not extended evenly across all categories of household spending.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 14.97% year-on-year in July, while the month-on-month core rate fell to 0.15% from 1.66% in June.

The divergence between food and core inflation will remain important in assessing whether the latest increase in food prices represents a temporary supply shock or a more persistent cost-of-living challenge.

Outlook

Nigeria’s food inflation reaching 20.31% in July highlights continued pressure on household purchasing power despite the decline in headline inflation.

For the housing market, the key concern is affordability. If food and other essential costs continue to absorb a larger share of household income, demand for homeownership and higher-priced rental accommodation could weaken.

Sustained improvements in food supply, transportation infrastructure, agricultural productivity and market efficiency will therefore remain important not only for containing food inflation but also for improving household capacity to meet housing costs.

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