Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele
Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Finance has rejected claims that $12.4 billion in oil revenue is missing from the country’s external accounts, saying the figure represents a statistical discrepancy rather than evidence of stolen or withheld funds.
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The ministry’s response follows the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which recorded a negative $12.4 billion balance of payments residual for the first half of 2026. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the ministry said the figure had been misrepresented in reports suggesting that Nigeria had lost oil earnings worth the entire amount.
Ministry Explains the $12.4bn Discrepancy
The ministry said the World Bank classified the figure as “net errors and omissions”, a standard accounting item used when records of a country’s international transactions do not fully reconcile.
According to the ministry, the residual does not represent a specific amount of money held in an account or establish that funds have been stolen, withheld or lost. Instead, it reflects differences between the data used to record transactions between Nigeria and the rest of the world.
The ministry also challenged interpretations linking the entire $12.4 billion to unremitted oil proceeds. It noted that the World Bank suggested unrepatriated oil earnings could explain part of the discrepancy while acknowledging that gaps in data collection may have contributed.
The report did not identify a specific amount, company or crude oil cargo responsible for the residual, the ministry said.
Nigeria Records $12bn Current Account Surplus
To support its position, the ministry pointed to other figures in the World Bank report showing that Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $12 billion in the first half of 2026.
It also highlighted an increase in gross external reserves from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion at the end of August 2026, representing a rise of $8.3 billion.
The ministry argued that these figures should be considered alongside the negative balance of payments residual when assessing the country's external financial position.
However, a current account surplus and rising external reserves do not, on their own, identify the precise causes of the discrepancy. The ministry's position is that the residual should not be treated as proof of missing oil revenue without evidence establishing the transactions responsible.
Ministry Identifies Possible Causes of the Gap
The ministry listed several factors that could contribute to discrepancies in Nigeria's external accounts, including informal remittances, under-recorded cross-border trade, delayed export payments and incomplete financial reporting.
It estimated that about $10 billion in remittances moves through informal channels or remains abroad annually. Transactions that do not pass through formal banking channels may not be fully captured in official records.
The ministry also explained that the timing of crude oil exports and payments can differ. While crude cargoes are recorded when lifted, payment may take between 30 and 90 days to arrive.
In addition, oil companies and their partners may lawfully retain their share of proceeds abroad, while some crude oil shipments linked to loan arrangements may generate payments directly to offshore lenders.
According to the ministry, these transactions can contribute to statistical discrepancies when the associated foreign assets, payments or debt repayments are not fully captured in the relevant records.
It added that the figures remain preliminary and could change as banks and companies submit additional information.
Nigeria Has Recorded Similar Discrepancies
The ministry said Nigeria had recorded a negative balance of payments residual in seven of the previous eight years, indicating that differences between external transaction records are not new.
It cited World Bank data showing that the residual ranged from a positive $17 billion in 2020 to a negative $24.9 billion in 2023.
The ministry also referenced international examples, including negative residuals recorded by the United States in 2023 and 2025 and a positive residual recorded by the United Kingdom in 2024, to illustrate that such discrepancies occur in other economies.
However, the existence of similar discrepancies elsewhere does not establish the specific causes of Nigeria's $12.4 billion figure. Identifying those causes requires more complete transaction data and reconciliation across the relevant reporting systems.
Ministry Pledges to Improve Financial Reporting
The Federal Ministry of Finance said it would continue working with the Central Bank of Nigeria and other relevant agencies to improve the recording of international transactions.
The effort is intended to strengthen the accuracy and completeness of the country's external accounts, including information relating to exports, remittances, banking transactions and foreign assets.
The ministry also urged media organisations and commentators to consult experts when interpreting technical financial data, warning against conclusions that go beyond what the underlying figures establish.
The dispute centres on how the World Bank's statistical finding should be interpreted. While the ministry has rejected claims that $12.4 billion in oil revenue is missing, the underlying discrepancy remains a matter of external-account reconciliation.
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