Recap Article: The Future of Real Estate in Nigeria: 2026 Outlook

The future of Nigeria's real estate sector is a raw and urgent conversation about frictions, frustrations, and fragile optimism. A recent webinar hosted by Nigeria Housing Market (NHM) brought together key industry voices to reveal a sector at a defining crossroads, caught between exponential growth and systemic gridlock.

Nigeria’s real estate sector is now the third-largest contributor to national GDP. In 2025, it is projected to generate more than ₦2.6 trillion in value driven by accelerating urban migration, a population expected to hit 260 million by 2026, and growing interest from diaspora investors.

But this growth comes with structural strain. The country still faces a 28 million housing unit deficit, with mortgage access below 1% penetration, construction costs rising rapidly, and interest rates hovering between 30 and 40%.  

Building for Lifestyle, Not Just Shelter

The modern buyer is no longer satisfied with just a roof over their head. According to Bolanle Ibitola, MD/CEO of Crayon Development, today's clients are demanding more than just shelter; they are seeking value, functionality, and a lifestyle that fits their routines. This new generation of buyers, especially upwardly mobile millennials and young families, is driving a "monumental" shift in consumer preference. They are trading traditional layouts for hybrid, tech-enabled homes that are energy-efficient, offer built-in co-working zones, and are optimized for both living and earning in the short-term rental market. For developers, this isn’t a fleeting trend; it's the future of how people live, work, and host from a single space.

The Blueprint for a New Era: Data, Collaboration, and Standardisation

The path forward involves a forward-looking strategy. Peacemaker Afolabi of Brass & Castles emphasised the urgent need for collaboration, noting that developers are often compelled to assume government roles. He explained that in many projects, developers build critical infrastructure like roads, drainage, and power sources, a burden that is both unfair and unsustainable. He insisted that private actors must collaborate first to solve shared problems before approaching the government as a united voice. Echoing this, Ibitola stressed the need for standardisation across the industry. She noted that a lack of consistent standards leads to increased costs and wasted time, and her advice to developers was to "look inwards" to find ways to reduce the cost to build through local sourcing and modular housing.

Affordable Housing: A Policy Problem

The panelists were clear: "Right now, there’s no such thing as affordable housing in Nigeria," said Peacemaker Afolabi. He argued that the problem is rooted in policy and cost. The high price of land, especially in growth areas, combined with the fact that nearly all building materials are priced in dollars, makes building for low- and middle-income earners a non-starter. Both Afolabi and Ibitola called for a total shake-up of the bureaucratic maze of permits and land titles. They emphasised that genuine public-private partnerships must extend beyond land allocations and involve real estate stakeholders in policy-making to create an environment where affordability can become more than just a buzzword.

Global Ripples, Local Realities

While domestic demand is strong, the global economic landscape is shifting in ways that directly impact Nigeria. Babatunde Akinpelu, Founder & CEO of NHM, explained that global turbulence from high inflation to elevated interest rates in Western countries is tightening the faucet on diaspora investments. With over $20 Billion in remittances flowing into Nigeria last year, this shift is significant. In 2026, he predicts, diaspora buyers will become more selective and demanding, requiring developers to back up their offerings with data, rental projections, and realistic ROI estimates. Babatunde also pointed out that global policy shifts, like tightening immigration policies and proposed tariffs on imported goods, will have a direct impact on the domestic market, potentially increasing on-ground demand while also inflating the cost of building materials.

The Smart Money is on Cash Flow and Innovation

For investors and developers, the rules are changing. While land remains a solid long-term play, Ayobami Akindipe, CEO of Ace Real Estate Development, advised looking at assets that generate a steady income stream, like small shops. He stressed that in an unpredictable market, holding cash yields no value, making assets that provide cash flow a wiser choice. The panelists also agreed that proptech is no longer optional. Akindipe announced his firm’s “PropStock” platform, which lets people buy real estate the same way they buy stocks, with plans to integrate crypto payment options. Babatunde predicted that fractional ownership would become mainstream as rising prices drive more creative financing models. The takeaway is clear: while the Nigerian real estate market is rich with opportunity, success will belong to those who are informed, collaborative, and willing to build beyond the conventional.

You can download our webinar presentation here

You can watch the full conversation here