CBN Forecasts $18.81 Billion Current Account Surplus In 2026

(CBN) projects that the nation’s current account surplus will rise to $18.81 billion by 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that the nation’s current account surplus will climb to $18.81 billion by the end of 2026. This forecast, detailed in the apex bank’s latest Medium-Term Macroeconomic Outlook, underscores a significant strengthening of Nigeria’s external trade position and reflects a sustained recovery in the balance of payments. The anticipated surplus is driven primarily by improved crude oil export receipts, a reduction in non-essential imports, and steady growth in diaspora remittances.

Macroeconomic Drivers of the 2026 Surplus

The CBN’s projections indicate a transition toward greater external stability. A current account surplus occurs when the value of a country's exports of goods, services, and transfers exceeds its imports. According to the CBN report, the expected $18.81 billion surplus is a direct result of strategic fiscal and monetary alignments aimed at curbing foreign exchange outflows while incentivising domestic production.

Key to this growth is the performance of the hydrocarbon sector. With global oil prices maintaining a stable floor and Nigeria’s production quotas seeing gradual improvements due to enhanced security in the Niger Delta, oil export revenue remains the primary engine of the trade balance. Furthermore, the bank anticipates that the operationalisation of domestic refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, will significantly reduce the demand for imported petroleum products, which historically accounted for a substantial portion of Nigeria’s foreign exchange expenditure.

Growth in Invisible Exports and Remittances

Beyond merchandise trade, the "invisible" component of the current account specifically services and secondary income is expected to play a pivotal role. The CBN highlights a steady increase in diaspora remittances, which continue to provide a critical cushion for the Naira.

Policy reforms aimed at formalising remittance channels have begun to yield results, ensuring that a larger volume of foreign currency enters the official banking system. Additionally, the services sector, particularly in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and financial services, is projected to contribute more robustly to the surplus as Nigerian firms expand their footprint across the African continent.

Implications for Foreign Exchange Reserves

An $18.81 billion surplus carries significant implications for Nigeria’s gross external reserves. A healthy current account balance reduces the pressure on the CBN to defend the Naira through constant market interventions. It provides the apex bank with the latitude to build up foreign exchange buffers, which in turn enhances investor confidence and improves the country's sovereign credit rating.

Financial analysts suggest that if these projections hold, the increased liquidity could lead to a more predictable and stable exchange rate environment, facilitating better planning for manufacturers and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).

Potential Risks

Despite the optimistic forecast, the CBN remains cautious of external shocks. The report identifies potential risks, including volatility in global energy markets and shifting monetary policies in advanced economies, such as the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Any significant dip in global oil demand or a resurgence in domestic inflationary pressures could temper the projected surplus.

Forward-Looking Perspective

The CBN’s 2026 outlook presents a roadmap for a more resilient Nigerian economy. By shifting from a deficit-prone structure to a sustained surplus, the country positions itself to better manage external debt obligations and fund critical infrastructure projects without excessive reliance on foreign borrowing. Moving forward, the focus of the federal government and the CBN will likely remain on diversifying the export base to ensure that the current account surplus remains sustainable even in the face of a global transition away from fossil fuels.