Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Narrows to ₦1.71tn as Crude Exports Decline
Imports Rise as Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Drops in Q4 2025
Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling to ₦1.71 trillion as declining crude oil exports and rising imports weakened the country’s trade balance.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics for Q4 2025 shows that Nigeria maintained a positive trade balance during the quarter, although the surplus declined sharply compared with the previous year.
The report indicates that the trade surplus dropped from ₦3.42 trillion in Q4 2024 to ₦1.71 trillion in Q4 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the margin between exports and imports.
Total Trade Reaches ₦36.21 Trillion
Nigeria’s total merchandise trade during the quarter stood at ₦36.21 trillion, representing a slight 1.07 percent decline year-on-year compared with ₦36.60 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.
Exports remained higher than imports but declined notably during the period. According to the NBS report:
Total exports: ₦18.96 trillion
Total imports: ₦17.25 trillion
The difference between the two figures produced the ₦1.71 trillion trade surplus recorded in the quarter.
Crude Oil Exports Drive Export Decline
The contraction in Nigeria’s trade surplus was largely attributed to a sharp decline in crude oil export earnings.
Crude oil exports fell to ₦9.70 trillion in Q4 2025, representing a 29.6 percent drop from ₦13.78 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.
Despite the decline, crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity, accounting for about 51.17 percent of total exports during the period.
Other key export commodities included:
Natural gas
Petroleum gases
Jet fuel
Urea
These products helped partially offset the fall in crude oil revenue.
Non-Oil and Petroleum Product Exports Increase
While crude oil exports declined, exports of other petroleum products recorded strong growth.
According to the NBS, exports of refined petroleum products rose to ₦6.12 trillion, representing an 80.45 percent increase year-on-year.
Non-crude exports also contributed significantly to Nigeria’s trade performance:
Non-crude exports: ₦9.26 trillion
Non-oil exports: ₦3.15 trillion
However, analysts note that non-oil exports remain relatively small compared with crude oil, highlighting the continued dependence of Nigeria’s external trade on hydrocarbons.
Imports Continue to Rise
Imports rose during the quarter, further narrowing Nigeria’s trade surplus.
Total imports increased to ₦17.25 trillion, representing a 3.98 percent rise from ₦16.59 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.
The largest import categories included:
Machinery and transport equipment – ₦5.13 trillion
Mineral fuels – ₦4.52 trillion
Chemicals and related products – ₦2.70 trillion
These categories collectively accounted for a large share of Nigeria’s import bill.
China remained Nigeria’s largest import partner, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, India and Brazil.
Key Export Markets
Nigeria’s export markets remained concentrated in a few major destinations.
The Netherlands, India, Spain, France and Canada were the top destinations for Nigerian exports during the quarter, collectively accounting for a significant share of export value.
Europe emerged as the largest regional destination for Nigerian goods, receiving exports worth ₦6.87 trillion, or 36.24 percent of total exports.
Outlook
Nigeria maintained a trade surplus throughout 2025, but the sharp contraction recorded in the fourth quarter highlights the economy’s continued dependence on crude oil exports.
Analysts note that improving non-oil export capacity, expanding manufacturing exports and reducing import dependence will be essential to strengthening Nigeria’s trade balance and reducing vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil markets.
