Nigeria’s Business Activity Expands for 12th Consecutive Month: December 2025 Report
Nigeria’s private sector has recorded its 12th consecutive month of expansion, ending 2025 on a solid footing despite persistent cost pressures. According to the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report, business activity remained in growth territory throughout December, driven by resilient consumer demand and a festive-season surge in orders.
The reports indicate that while the pace of growth moderated slightly in certain sub-sectors, the headline indices remained firmly above the 50.0-point threshold, which separates expansion from contraction.
1. Key Performance Indicators (December 2025)
The data from major financial institutions reveals a consistent trend of private sector resilience:
Stanbic IBTC PMI: Stood at 53.5 points in December, compared to 53.6 in November. This marks the 13th month of improvement in operating conditions.
CBN Composite PMI: Rose to 57.6 points, signaling the fastest pace of expansion recorded during the 2025 calendar year.
Sectoral Performance: All five major sectors—Agriculture, Manufacturing, Trade, Non-Manufacturing, and Services—recorded growth. Agriculture posted the strongest rebound, climbing to 112.9 points on the Business Confidence Metric (BCM).
2. Drivers of Expansion
Surveyed firms cited several factors that sustained the growth momentum:
Surge in New Orders: Stronger customer demand, particularly during the December festive period, led to the 14th consecutive monthly increase in sales.
Output Growth: In response to higher demand, companies expanded production levels across all four broad categories monitored by the PMI.
Business Confidence: Sentiment hit a six-month high, with approximately 59% of respondents expressing optimism for 2026, citing plans for branch expansions and product exports.
3. Operational Constraints and Challenges
Despite the expansion, the reports highlighted significant hurdles that tempered the pace of growth:
Rising Input Costs: The cost of doing business increased to 61.6 points due to higher raw material, energy, and transportation prices.
Logistics & Infrastructure: Poor road conditions and unreliable power supply contributed to project delays and increased backlogs of work.
Purchasing Power: While sales grew, firms noted that high inflation continued to squeeze consumer purchasing power, leading to more cautious spending in non-essential sectors.
The Real Estate & Housing Impact: Sustained Commercial Demand
Office & Retail Space Absorption: Sustained growth in the Services and Trade sectors is driving demand for modern office spaces and retail hubs in Lagos and Abuja.
Developer Confidence: With business sentiment at a six-month high, commercial real estate developers are more likely to initiate new projects, anticipating increased corporate tenancy in 2026.
Industrial Real Estate: The modest improvement in Manufacturing activity is fueling demand for warehousing and "last-mile" logistics facilities along major transport corridors.