China-Nigeria Trade Surges to $22.3 Billion: Analyzing the 2026 Economic Outlook
Bilateral trade between China and Nigeria exceeded $22.3 billion in the first 10 months of 2025.
Bilateral trade between China and Nigeria exceeded $22.3 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, marking a 30.2% year-on-year increase. This growth was disclosed by the Chinese Consul-General in Lagos, Ms Yan Yuqing, during the Lagos Forum New Year Media Symposium on 7 January 2026. The surge reflects a deepening comprehensive strategic partnership, with Nigeria solidifying its position as China’s second-largest trading partner in Africa and a primary destination for Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI).
Infrastructure and Maritime Performance
The expansion in trade volume is closely tied to the operational success of major Chinese-funded infrastructure projects. The Lekki Deep Sea Port emerged as a significant growth driver in 2025, recording an annual throughput of 520,000 TEU an 82% increase compared to 2024. The port currently operates at nearly 50% of its designed capacity, facilitating not only Nigerian imports and exports but also serving as a transshipment hub for the West African sub-region.
Transport connectivity also saw marked improvements through the Lagos–Ibadan Railway and the Lagos Light Rail projects. Passenger volumes on these lines reached record highs in 2025, contributing to reduced urban congestion and more efficient logistics for goods moving from the hinterland to the ports.
Diversification and Market Access
A notable shift in the trade balance has been the increased access for Nigerian non-oil exports to the Chinese market. Following Nigeria's participation as a "Guest Country of Honour" at the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo (CAETE) and the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in 2025, exports of agricultural commodities such as cashews, sesame seeds, sorghum, and dried ginger rose significantly.
Ms Yuqing noted that the Lekki and Ogun–Guangdong Free Trade Zones remain essential platforms for industrial cooperation, supporting local manufacturing and job creation. China has also expressed readiness to implement zero-tariff measures for Nigerian products to further reduce trade imbalances.
The 2026 Strategic Roadmap
Looking ahead, 2026 marks the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Nigeria. The year also coincides with the commencement of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes high-level opening and "green" development. Cooperation is expected to expand into the following emerging sectors:
Digital Economy: Collaboration on 5G infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and fintech.
Renewable Energy: Investment in solar and hydroelectric projects to address Nigeria’s power deficit.
Blue Economy: Enhancing maritime security and sustainable ocean-based industries.
The Chinese envoy reaffirmed that the Consulate-General will prioritize the protection of Chinese businesses in Nigeria while fostering cultural exchanges through initiatives like the "China-Nigeria Film Week."
Diplomatic Tensions and Sovereignty
During the symposium, Ms Yuqing also addressed broader geopolitical issues, specifically criticizing a recent United States arms sale to Taiwan valued at approximately $11 billion. She characterized the move as a violation of China’s sovereignty and a "dangerous signal" to separatist forces. Nigeria continues to uphold the "One-China" principle, a cornerstone of the bilateral trust that has allowed the economic partnership to reach its current $22.3 billion milestone.
Conclusion
The 30.2% growth in bilateral trade underscores the resilience of the China-Nigeria partnership despite global economic fluctuations. As the relationship transitions into its 55th year, the focus on infrastructure maturity and non-oil export growth suggests a move toward a more balanced and sustainable economic exchange. For investors and policymakers, the continued integration of the Belt and Road Initiative with Nigeria’s "Renewed Hope" agenda remains the primary trajectory for 2026.
