Nigeria’s Economic Reset: CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso Reviews 2025 "Foundation Year" and Sets 2026 Growth Targets
In a year-end reflection on the state of the national economy, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has characterized 2025 as a defining phase of "consolidation and resolve." Through a series of disciplined monetary policy resets, the apex bank successfully transitioned from crisis management to a rules-based framework focused on transparency and long-term stability.
According to Governor Cardoso, the "difficult choices" made in 2024 evolved into measurable stability in 2025. This progress was anchored on three deliberate priorities: stability, transparency, and growth.
1. The 2025 Performance: Measurable Stability
Data from the CBN 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook confirms that the "disciplined execution" cited by the Governor yielded significant results across key indicators:
GDP Growth: Nigeria’s economy grew by an estimated 3.89% in 2025, outperforming the 3.38% recorded in 2024.
Inflation Moderation: Following a high of 34.6% in late 2024, headline inflation eased steadily throughout 2025, ending the year with an estimated average of 21.26%.
Foreign Reserves Surge: Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $45.01 billion, providing approximately 11 months of import cover—a critical buffer for the Naira.
2. Restoring Market Confidence and Credibility
Governor Cardoso emphasized that the CBN’s "unwavering focus on restoring confidence" helped narrow the gap between official and parallel FX markets to under 2%.
FX Code & Transparency: The launch of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code in January 2025 promoted accountability, ensuring that the market is driven by "willing buyers and willing sellers" rather than administrative controls.
Global Integration: Foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025—a 70% increase over 2024, reflecting a clear resurgence in investor confidence.
The 2026 Roadmap: Transitioning to Real Economic Expansion
Looking ahead, the CBN has projected a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for 2026, with the focus shifting from stabilization to transmission—ensuring that monetary stability translates into real-world benefits for businesses and households.
| Indicator | 2025 (Estimated) | 2026 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 3.89% | 4.49% |
| Average Inflation | 21.26% | 12.94% |
| Foreign Reserves | $45.01B | $51.04B |
| Current Account Surplus | $5.80B | $18.81B |
Strategic Anchors for 2026:
Banking Sector Recapitalization: Strengthening the resilience of the financial system to better support private-sector credit.
Inflation Targeting: A formal transition to a forward-looking inflation-targeting framework to anchor long-term price expectations.
Fiscal-Monetary Coordination: Working closely with the Ministry of Finance to ensure that infrastructure spending and tax reforms (under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025) complement monetary stability.
