Inflation is Easing in Nigeria. So Why Are Building Costs still Expensive?
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases, But Building Costs Remain Stubbornly High
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has been on a downward trend in recent months, declining to 20.12% in August 2025 from 21.88% in July. In theory, a broad easing of inflation should eventually lead to slower price increases, or even price reductions, for goods and services. Yet on the ground, building material prices have hardly budged. A 50kg bag of Dangote cement still sells for around ₦10,200 in Lagos (and up to ₦10,500 in some eastern cities), with other brands around ₦10,000. Iron rods tell a similar story, remaining at roughly ₦9,500 per length (local) or ₦12,500 (imported), virtually unchanged for months. Even basic inputs like sand and granite have stayed flat at ₦50,000 to ₦60,000 per ton for over half a year. In short, construction costs in Nigeria remain near record highs despite an official slowdown in inflation. Why haven’t prices fallen in step with inflation? The key is that “disinflation” is not the same as deflation. Inflation cooling from 21% to 20% means prices are still rising, just at a slower rate, not that they are falling. In fact, economic history shows that prices are a one-way ticket on average. They tend to rise over time and rarely drop unless a serious downturn forces them down. Central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve explicitly aim for low positive inflation (around 2%) and generally avoid outright price declines, because sustained deflation can destabilize the economy. So, with Nigeria’s inflation slowing but still high (20%+), it is unsurprising that building material costs remain elevated, at best leveling off, but not genuinely falling.
Cement prices (₦ per 50 kg bag) in Nigeria have roughly quadrupled from 2018 to 2025, despite periods of easing inflation. Moreover, Nigeria’s case has some extra complications. Even in sectors where prices have pulled back slightly, the changes are modest and selective. For instance, economists noted tiny price drops for a few consumer items (like rice after import duty waivers, or certain pharmaceuticals after tax relief on inputs). But most goods and services are still extremely costly, and essentials like food, fuel, and transport remain expensive. In the words of one Nigerian industry CEO, the recent dip in inflation is “extremely marginal,” largely a statistical blip, while “costs of goods and services are still extremely high” across the board. In other words, the headline inflation number may be improving, but businesses and consumers are not yet feeling relief. Nowhere is this disconnect more apparent than in construction, where builders face nearly the same high material prices as when inflation was at its peak.
Price Stickiness: Why Firms Are Reluctant to Cut Prices
A major reason that costs don’t fall in tandem with inflation is the classic economic phenomenon of price stickiness, especially downward rigidity. Firms are often hesitant to cut nominal prices even when their input costs or broader inflation metrics improve. Why are prices sticky on the way down?
Fear of Resetting Customer Expectations: Businesses worry that if they lower prices, consumers might expect those low prices to stick, making it hard to raise prices again later. Frequent price changes could also confuse or upset customers, eroding trust in the business. Many firms prefer to maintain a reputation for price stability. For example, a retailer might keep prices steady to seem reliable, even if costs fluctuate in the short term.
“Anchoring” and Signaling: In some markets, a price cut can be misinterpreted as a signal of lower quality or desperate sales. Companies may fear “anchoring” their product at a lower price point. Especially for construction materials (like cement or steel) sold to contractors, a sudden price drop might lead buyers to delay purchases, hoping for further declines, or raise questions about the product’s quality. Firms avoid these complications by holding prices steady.
Menu Costs and Logistical Frictions: Changing prices is not free. There are literal “menu costs” (like reprinting catalogs or updating systems) and logistical challenges in repricing inventory. While these costs are not huge for commodities like cement, they contribute to inertia. If inflation easing appears temporary, sellers might choose to “wait and see” rather than incur the hassle of price adjustments that might soon reverse.
Strategic Coordination: Often, companies look to their competitors before changing prices. In an oligopolistic or concentrated market, no firm wants to cut prices first and sacrifice profit if others do not follow. This can lead to a coordinated stickiness. Everyone holds prices high until it is absolutely clear that a general price reduction is needed. If firms are unsure whether their rivals will cut prices, they may all refrain from cutting, a coordination failure that keeps prices high.
Nigeria’s cement industry is a prime example of strategic price rigidity. The market is dominated by three big players. Dangote Cement alone controls about 60% of the market, with Lafarge Africa and BUA sharing most of the rest. This oligopoly has historically kept prices high. Nigerian cement prices have been reported at about 240% above the global average in the past. During Nigeria’s 2016 recession, when demand plummeted, cement firms raised prices, from about ₦800 to ₦1,400 per bag at the time, to offset their lower sales volumes. In other words, rather than cut prices to stimulate demand, the dominant players chose to protect their margins, and Nigerian consumers paid the price. Unsurprisingly, once those prices went up, they did not come back down afterward. By 2021, lawmakers were still decrying cement prices that “impede construction,” and calling for more competition to “drive down prices” in this sticky market. Even recently, as Nigeria’s macroeconomy “improves” on paper, officials have accused manufacturers of being quick to hike prices but slow to reduce them. In early 2025, the government publicly urged cement producers to cut the price per bag to around ₦7,000, noting that they had raised it to ₦9,500 when the currency was crashing, yet failed to reverse those hikes after the currency stabilized. The Works Minister pointed out that when the naira was near ₦2,000 per dollar, companies jacked up cement to ₦7,500 and then ₦9,500. Now with the naira around ₦1,400/$, a significant appreciation, cement was still about ₦9,500. This reflects classic downward rigidity. Firms are slow to reverse price increases even when the original cost pressure, in this case a weak currency, has partially eased. Manufacturers often defend their sticky pricing by citing remaining cost pressures. But the broader point stands. In less competitive markets, companies tend to hold prices high as long as they can. They might only trim prices when faced with sustained cost relief and competitive or regulatory pressure. Until then, sticky nominal prices prevail, even if it frustrates consumers and policymakers.
High Input Costs and Supply Chain Constraints Keep Prices Elevated
Another critical reason building material costs haven’t fallen is that many underlying cost drivers remain high, even as overall inflation decelerates. Builders in Nigeria are still grappling with expensive inputs all along the supply chain:
Currency Depreciation and Forex Woes: The Nigerian naira has been on a wild ride, and despite some recent stabilization, it remains far weaker than a few years ago. As of early 2025 the exchange rate was around ₦1,400 to ₦1,500 per US$1, after the government’s reforms to unify and float the rate. This is double or triple the rate from just a couple of years prior. Nigeria imports a large share of its building materials or their components. By some estimates, over 70% of construction inputs are imported. A weak naira directly translates to higher costs for cement (clinker, machinery), steel (often imported scrap or billets), tiles, fixtures, and so on. Even if domestic inflation cools, a still-devalued currency means imported materials have not gotten cheaper in local terms. In fact, currency volatility itself makes suppliers hesitant to reduce prices. They might be one forex swing away from erasing any gains. Until Nigeria achieves a stable and stronger exchange rate, import-heavy sectors like construction will face a floor under their costs.
Energy and Fuel Costs: Producing and transporting building materials is extremely energy-intensive. Nigeria has seen soaring fuel costs after the mid-2023 removal of petrol subsidies. Diesel and gas prices, critical for powering factories and trucks, remain very high. In late 2024, Nigeria experienced an energy crunch where petrol prices jumped from about ₦200/liter to ₦550 to ₦600/liter, a 200% to 300% increase, after subsidy removal. By 2025, there were reports of the new Dangote Refinery lowering petrol to ₦825, but other marketers still selling at ₦970. This meant transport costs stayed inflated. The cost to haul cement, sand, or bricks across Nigeria’s potholed roads is dramatically higher than before due to fuel. Likewise, running a cement kiln or steel rebar mill requires huge energy input, often from gas or coal. Those costs have not dropped. The Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN) confirms that fuel price surges directly impact construction material prices, since so many manufacturing plants rely on petrol, diesel, or gas for power. As long as diesel is pricey and electricity supply unreliable, producers face steep bills, and thus little room to cut their selling prices.
Logistics and Infrastructure: Poor infrastructure and high transport costs in Nigeria add a persistent premium to material prices. Trucking goods between ports, factories, and construction sites is slow and costly, with expenses only exacerbated by high diesel prices and insecurity in some regions. These logistics costs do not drop just because inflation slows. They are structural until infrastructure improves. In fact, manufacturers note that transportation remains a major cost, given bad roads and the need for security. This further pushes final prices up even if general inflation is easing.
Raw Material Shortages and Global Prices: Global commodity prices can also keep local costs high. For example, if global cement clinker prices, steel scrap prices, or timber prices remain elevated due to global energy prices or supply chain issues, Nigerian suppliers will not see much relief. Any supply constraints, say, a local cement plant running below capacity, or a ban on cheaper imports, will prevent prices from falling. In recent years, Nigeria even closed its land borders (2019 to 2020) to curb smuggling, which cut off some cheaper imports. Domestic firms responded by raising prices further to make up for lost competition and sales. Those protectionist dynamics can linger, keeping prices from adjusting downward.
Financing and Interest Rates: One often overlooked factor is the cost of capital. With Nigeria’s tight monetary policy to fight inflation, interest rates have been high. Manufacturers who borrowed at high rates to expand or to import raw materials face steep financing costs. Cement producers in early 2025 argued that despite a slightly stronger naira, they still had high interest rates on loans used to finance production, which, along with other input costs, prevented them from cutting prices. In essence, as long as producers are squeezed by expensive loans and operating costs, they will keep passing those costs onto prices, or at least, not rush to lower prices.
All these input-side issues create a cost floor below which building material prices will not easily fall. Indeed, industry leaders contend that until fundamentals shift, for example cheaper energy, better transport, more stable FX, they simply cannot lower prices without jeopardizing their business. This highlights a key reality. A lower inflation rate does not automatically mean costs have gone away. If inflation eased from, say, 25% to 20% because of statistical base effects or a temporary policy change, many underlying expenses might still be near peak levels. Nigerian businesses are saying exactly that. Fundamental cost pressures remain, so prices stay high. It is also worth noting demand-side pressures. Government infrastructure drives demand for materials, which can prop up prices even when broader inflation slows. Nigeria’s push for housing and mega-projects means cement and steel demand remains robust. Industry watchers cite increased demand from large-scale infrastructure projects as one reason building material prices have not fallen in line with inflation. In a classic supply-demand sense, as long as demand is hot and supply is constrained, sellers have little incentive to lower prices. So, easing inflation or not, the construction sector sees a tight market that supports high price tags.
Sectoral Differences: Fast vs Slow Price Adjustments
Not all prices behave the same way when inflation moderates. Different sectors have different speeds of adjustment, and construction tends to be on the slow side for price changes. Several factors make building materials more downward sticky compared to, say, consumer goods:
Long Value Chains and Lagged Pass-Through: Building materials go through multi-layered supply chains, from global commodity markets to local factories to distributors to retailers. It takes time for cost changes, like cheaper fuel or a stronger naira, to propagate through all these layers. For example, a cement dealer might still be selling inventory produced at last quarter’s higher energy costs. They will not cut the retail price until perhaps the next batch if their wholesale cost drops. This lag can be months long. By contrast, some perishable consumer goods, like vegetables, reflect cost changes more quickly. A good harvest season can immediately boost supply and lower prices. Construction inputs often have contractual or production lags. It might be 3 to 6 months before a sustained drop in input costs shows up as a price change to end buyers.
Contractual Pricing and Projects: In construction, a lot of material sales are tied to contracts and projects. A builder might have signed a contract for cement supply at a fixed price when inflation was high. That contract will not be renegotiated down easily until it expires. Also, developers budget projects based on prevailing prices. If those prices ease, they might simply take the savings as profit or use higher-quality materials rather than cut nominal prices in ongoing contracts. Regulatory and administrative lags also matter. Government-set tariffs or fees on materials might only adjust annually, delaying any price relief.
Competitive Pressure (or Lack Thereof): In highly competitive sectors, like consumer electronics or retail groceries, if input costs drop or demand weakens, some firms will cut prices quickly to gain market share, forcing others to follow. This is why you sometimes see sales or discounts when inflation cools in consumer markets. But in oligopolistic sectors like cement or steel in Nigeria, competitive pressure is weak. Firms can maintain a comfortable margin without fear of an aggressive price war. One Nigerian cement newcomer, BUA, at times tried undercutting prices to capture market share. There were reports of price wars reducing prices by up to 36% in some instances. However, such competitive bouts are limited and often short lived. Overall, cost-plus pricing is prevalent. Companies set prices by adding a markup to their costs, and if costs ease, they would rather hold the markup, increase profit, than start a price-cutting spiral in the market.
Essential vs Discretionary Goods: Many building inputs are essential for any construction project and have no perfect substitutes. There is no easy alternative to cement or rebar if you are building a conventional structure. Consumers can delay building a house, but they cannot switch to a different cheaper product to replace cement. They just have to wait or pay up. This is different from, say, a household deciding not to buy beef if it is too expensive and buying chicken instead. Such substitution forces prices down in consumer food markets faster. In construction, the lack of substitutes and the fact that projects can be deferred, instead of materials being bought in smaller quantities, means prices tend to adjust via reduced volume, projects paused, rather than price discounts. Developers indeed have been delaying projects in Nigeria because of high costs, but that has not yet translated into significantly lower material prices. It just means fewer transactions at persistently high prices.
Psychology and Expectations: There is also an expectations game. If builders and suppliers expect inflation to rebound or costs to rise again, they will be very reluctant to lower prices now. Nigeria’s economic environment has been volatile. Businesses might suspect that today’s dip in inflation is temporary, so they price in future increases by keeping prices high. This is a self-fulfilling sticky behavior. Everyone waits for more certainty. Only when confidence grows that inflation will stay low, or that a price cut will not be reversed soon, will firms consider cutting prices. In countries with a history of high inflation, like Nigeria, inflation expectations are often entrenched, leading to inertia. By contrast, in an economy with stable low inflation, a company might feel safer to trim prices knowing the overall environment is stable.
Interestingly, we can look at a historical case in Nigeria to see how different goods respond after inflation peaks. After the 2016 inflation spike (inflation hit 18.9%, a 25-year high), Nigeria exited recession and inflation fell back to around 11% by mid 2018. During that period of cooling inflation and a stabilized currency (₦350/$ in 2018 vs ₦420/$ at the peak of the crisis), some building material prices did inch downward. Cement prices in H1 2018 were about ₦2,550 to ₦2,600 per bag, down about 8% from ₦2,700 to ₦2,900 a year earlier. Standard 9 inch concrete blocks dropped about 5% in price, and certain materials like steel cables and paving stones saw notable declines of 9% to 17% compared to a year prior. This shows that Nigeria’s building costs can fall when conditions allow, but the drops were relatively small and took a full year of better conditions to materialize. By the way, not all inputs fell. The price of aluminum roofing sheets actually rose 7% in that same period, likely due to other factors, perhaps global aluminum prices or local supply issues. The mixed pattern underscores that price adjustment is uneven. Some construction goods are quicker to adjust, especially if they are imported and benefited from a currency stabilization, while others remain sticky or even keep climbing due to other constraints. Compared to mature economies, where inflation oscillations are smaller, Nigeria’s adjustments might be slower and bumpier. In advanced economies, it is often observed that price declines for goods lag inflation drops by a few quarters. For instance, after a big inflation surge, it may take 6 to 12 months of low inflation for retailers to start cutting durable goods prices, and sticky services, like rents, might take even longer. In Nigeria, given the structural issues, the lag might be longer and the decline smaller. The 2018 episode suggests roughly a one year lag yielded single digit price drops in some materials. Today’s situation (2023 to 2025) is arguably more complex, bigger shocks to exchange rate and energy, so any nominal price declines may require even more patience.
Expectations, Policy, and the Outlook for Relief
Given this landscape, cost rigidities, cautious firms, and structural obstacles, is it realistic to expect Nigerian building material prices to fall in the near term? If so, how fast or by how much? In the immediate term, significant price drops are unlikely. At best, Nigeria might see stability or slight dips in building costs over several months, rather than sharp declines. There are a few reasons for guarded expectations:
Disinflation vs Deflation: As emphasized, Nigeria is experiencing disinflation, slower inflation, not deflation. Unless inflation actually goes negative or at least to low single digits, the default is that prices keep rising or plateau, not that they fall. Many Nigerians understandably wish prices would return to pre inflation spike levels, as one analyst noted, people “want these prices to be back where they were” before the surge, but that would require an overall deflationary trend that policymakers are hesitant to allow. Central Bank measures have tamed inflation somewhat, but they are not targeting a price rollback, just a stabilization.
Policy Credibility and Economic Stability: For businesses to confidently lower prices, they need to trust that input costs won’t jump again next quarter. That depends on policy consistency, stable exchange rate management, prudent fiscal policy, and so on. Nigeria is making efforts, for example rebasing the CPI, tighter monetary policy, securing forex inflows, but it is early. If by late 2025 inflation continues down into the low teens and the naira holds steady, confidence will build that maybe the worst is over. Only then might we see suppliers consider modest price cuts or discounts. If instead there is any new shock, say a surge in global oil prices, or a bad agricultural season spiking food inflation, it could reinforce expectations that high inflation will return, keeping prices rigid.
Government Interventions: The government can sometimes force the issue, as seen with the Works Minister’s demand for cement price cuts. While the government cannot directly set prices in a market economy, their pressure can lead to negotiated outcomes. For instance, there have been talks of agreements with cement manufacturers to cap or reduce prices, especially for public projects. If such pressure continues, Nigeria’s presidency and legislature have historically been vocal about cement prices, we might see a token price reduction. For example, Dangote and BUA might agree to a slight cut to appease authorities. Indeed, news in September 2023 indicated major producers freezing prices for government projects. However, these measures often apply to specific projects or are short term public relations moves. The broader market price that everyday builders pay may not dramatically change unless competition or costs truly force it.
Capacity and Competition Improvements: In the medium term, one reason for optimism is the potential for increased local production and competition. The federal government has been actively pursuing initiatives like building materials production hubs, for example securing land in Lekki Free Trade Zone for a giant building materials hub. The goal is to boost domestic manufacturing of items like roofing sheets, tiles, doors, and so on, reduce import dependence, and create some competitive pressure that could bring prices down. Such hubs, planned across six geopolitical zones, could, if successful, lower costs in a couple of years by improving supply. More competition, whether via new entrants or import liberalization, is arguably the surest way to break persistent high prices. Lawmakers in 2021 suggested loosening licensing to attract new cement players. If Nigeria manages to bring in new manufacturers or expand capacity, for example Dangote’s competitors ramping up production, the increased supply could finally exert downward pressure on prices. This will not happen overnight, but it is a factor for longer term price relief.
Global Factors: A favorable turn in global commodity prices could also help. If worldwide energy prices fall significantly, or if international prices of cement, steel, and similar materials come down, for instance due to a global economic slowdown, Nigeria could import some relief. As a concrete example, if in 2026 global cement prices slump, imported cement, or clinker, could become cheaper, indirectly pushing local prices down. Of course, Nigeria’s high import costs and past import restrictions complicate this, but global disinflation trends in commodities would be a tailwind.
Considering all these, any rule of thumb for Nigeria might be this. Even after inflation peaks, expect at least a year or more before any noticeable price reversals in the construction sector, and even then, only modest declines. The 2018 case gave about an 8% cement price drop after a year of better conditions. We might use that as a benchmark. Perhaps if inflation keeps trending down through 2026 and the naira holds, one could hope for single digit percentage declines in some material costs over the next year or so. But a return to pre inflation prices, for example cement back to ₦3,000 per bag, is highly improbable without extreme deflation or massive structural changes. More likely, prices will remain high but stabilize, allowing incomes, hopefully, to catch up over time and real costs to effectively fall in relative terms. In summary, building materials in Nigeria exemplify the adage that prices go up faster than they come down. Downward price rigidity, lingering high input costs, and structural market features mean that a cooling of inflation does not translate into immediate relief for builders or aspiring homeowners. Firms are cautious about cutting prices, especially in a concentrated industry, and many still face elevated costs for energy, transport, and imports. Sector-specific factors, from project contracts to lack of substitutes, further slow any price adjustment. History shows Nigeria’s construction prices can eventually adjust downward a little when macro conditions markedly improve, but patience is required. Given the current structure of supply chains and cost drivers, any decline in building material prices will likely be gradual and limited. Policymakers and industry players are working to address some of the bottlenecks, boosting local production, improving infrastructure, stabilizing the currency, which could, over time, ease the pressure. In the near term, however, the best outcome may be that prices stop rising further. Lasting, significant price reductions would require a combination of sustained low inflation, lower input costs, greater competition, and confidence in the economy. That is a tall order, but not an impossible one for Nigeria’s future. For now, builders may have to continue weathering high costs even as inflation cools, epitomizing the reality that when inflation cools, costs often do not, at least not right away.
Implications for Real Estate and the Housing Market
The persistence of high construction costs, even as inflation cools, carries significant consequences for Nigeria’s real estate sector. It signals that the relief expected from broader economic trends is not translating into lower project delivery costs. Instead, developers, homebuyers, and investors continue to grapple with an environment where affordability, project viability, and long-term planning are under sustained pressure.
Residential Market:
For homebuyers and developers, elevated material costs mean affordability remains strained. Middle-class families hoping to build or purchase homes face price tags that do not reflect the broader easing of inflation. Developers may scale back new projects, focusing only on luxury or high-margin housing where demand is less price sensitive. This could worsen Nigeria’s housing deficit, particularly in the affordable segment, as the cost of delivery continues to outpace household incomes. Renters also feel the impact indirectly, as landlords often pass through high construction costs into rental prices, limiting relief for households already struggling with elevated living expenses.
Commercial Market:
In the commercial property space, sustained high input costs push up the expense of office towers, retail complexes, and industrial facilities. Investors may delay new projects or look to smaller, phased developments to reduce upfront exposure. For multinational tenants and logistics operators, high construction and fit-out costs can deter expansion, dampening Nigeria’s attractiveness as a destination for new investment. At the same time, institutional investors may demand higher rents or longer leases to cover higher project financing costs, potentially slowing growth in sectors like warehousing and retail.
Developers and Industry Stakeholders:
Real estate developers face shrinking margins as they struggle to balance high input costs with the market’s limited ability to absorb higher selling prices. Contractors may increasingly renegotiate project timelines or scale down specifications, choosing lower-quality materials where possible. This dynamic creates risks of uneven building standards and reduced long-term durability in housing stock. For banks and lenders, the environment raises concerns about project viability and credit risks, especially if high costs delay completion or affect repayment timelines.
Policy and Public Sector:
For government and policymakers, the stickiness of construction costs undermines ambitious housing and infrastructure goals. Affordable housing programs, already underfunded, face even greater difficulty delivering units at scale. Mega projects in roads, rail, and housing can also exceed budgets, forcing either delays, redesigns, or higher public borrowing. This environment places greater urgency on interventions like boosting local manufacturing of building materials, improving logistics infrastructure, and stabilizing the foreign exchange market to lower imported input costs.
Investors and the Broader Market:
For private investors and foreign stakeholders, the key takeaway is that Nigerian real estate will remain a high-cost environment in the short term. Those entering the market should plan for elevated capital expenditures and longer payback periods. Yet the demand side remains robust. With a housing deficit exceeding 20 million units and growing urbanization, the structural need for homes, offices, and industrial facilities is not going away. The tension between demand and stubbornly high construction costs will continue to define Nigeria’s real estate market.
References
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