Nigeria’s Inflation Slows to 16.05% in October as Food Prices Ease and FX Conditions Improve
Nigeria recorded a significant decline in inflation in October 2025, as headline inflation fell to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The year-on-year headline rate also moderated to 17.82%, markedly lower than the 33.88% reported in October 2024, reflecting the impact of the updated base year and easing price pressures across key segments of the economy.
The NBS reported a month-on-month headline inflation rate of 0.93% for October, compared to 0.72% in September. The Bureau noted that while annual inflation declined sharply, the monthly figure rose due to a faster increase in average price levels during the period.
Analysts attribute the moderation in annual inflation to improved foreign exchange conditions, favourable supply dynamics, and a broader deceleration in food prices, factors that align with market expectations ahead of the NBS release.
Urban and Rural Inflation Diverge on Monthly Trends
Urban inflation dropped significantly on a year-on-year basis, declining to 15.65% in October from 36.38% in the same month last year. However, urban month-on-month inflation rose to 1.14%, up from 0.74% in September.
The twelve-month average urban inflation rate also eased to 22.68%, compared to 34.52% recorded in October 2024.
Rural inflation followed a similar annual trend, with the year-on-year rate dropping to 15.86% from 31.59% in October 2024. Month-on-month rural inflation, however, slowed to 0.45%, a decline from 0.67% recorded the previous month. The twelve-month average rural inflation rate fell to 20.81%, down from 30.24% a year earlier.
Food Inflation Records Major Decline Driven by Base-Year Adjustment
Food inflation posted one of the most significant adjustments in October, falling to 13.12% year-on-year from 39.16% in October 2024. The NBS explained that the sharp moderation reflects the new base year as well as easing pressures across several food categories.
Despite the lower annual rate, monthly food inflation increased to –0.37%, compared with –1.57% in September. The upward movement was linked to higher prices of onions, oranges, pineapples, shrimp, groundnuts, leafy vegetables such as ugu and okazi, and various meat products, including goat meat, cow tail, and liver.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate settled at 21.96%, down from 38.12% recorded in October 2024.
The October figures align with market projections that inflation would ease to a range between 16.20% and 17.76%, following stabilization in the foreign exchange market and improvements in domestic supply flows. Analysts noted that the combination of moderating food prices, increased FX stability, and more predictable energy costs supported the downward trajectory.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s inflation profile in October reflects a meaningful shift toward stability after months of elevated price pressures. While the month-on-month figures indicate lingering short-term volatility, the broader deceleration, especially in food and urban inflation, suggests improving economic conditions. Sustaining this progress will require continued policy coordination, FX stability, and measures to strengthen domestic production and distribution systems.
