Nigeria’s Economy Expands by 3.98% in Q3 2025 as Key Sectors Strengthen
Nigeria’s GDP Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025 as Agriculture, Industry, and Services Strengthen
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in Q3 2025, reflecting a marginal improvement over the 3.86% recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The performance demonstrates continued resilience across agriculture, industry, and services, highlighting the broadening base of Nigeria’s economic recovery.
Broad-Based Growth Across Real and Nominal GDP
The NBS report indicates that nominal GDP increased to ₦113.59 trillion in Q3 2025, up from ₦96.16 trillion in Q3 2024, representing 18.12% year-on-year growth. This expansion reflects both price-level adjustments and stronger activity in several non-oil industries.
Real GDP sustained an upward trajectory driven by improved output in agriculture, a modest rebound in industry, and steady performance within the services sector.
Agriculture Sector: Strengthened Output Despite Nominal Pressures
Agriculture remained a central pillar of the economy, recording 3.79% real growth, a notable increase from 2.55% in Q3 2024. Crop production accounted for 65.99% of the sector’s total output, reaffirming its dominance and continued importance for food supply and rural employment.
However, the sector posted relatively modest nominal growth of 3.18%, reflecting weaker price momentum and a 14.87-percentage-point decline year-on-year. Despite these pressures, agriculture continues to underpin non-oil GDP expansion.
Industry Sector: Recovery Continues but Remains Uneven
The industry sector expanded by 3.77% in real terms, improving on the 2.78% growth reported in Q3 2024. The recovery reflects better performance in manufacturing and a positive, though moderated, contribution from oil and gas.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing output rose by 1.25% year-on-year, marking a gradual improvement compared to the previous year. However, quarter-on-quarter activity slipped by 0.34 percentage points, suggesting persistent structural challenges, including elevated operating costs and import-dependent supply chains.
Mining and Quarrying
Mining and quarrying, which covers crude petroleum, metal ores, and other minerals, saw a steep nominal decline of 41.08% year-on-year, underscoring ongoing price and production volatility in the sector.
Services Sector: Largest Contributor to GDP
The services sector maintained its position as the economy’s largest contributor, accounting for 53.02% of total real GDP up slightly from 52.93% in Q3 2024. Real growth came in at 4.15%, slightly below the 4.97% recorded in the same quarter last year.
The sector benefited from sustained strength in telecommunications, financial services, real estate, and trade, all of which remain essential drivers of Nigeria’s urban and digital economy.
Oil Sector: Output Improves but Momentum Slows
Crude oil production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q3 2025, higher than the 1.47 mbpd recorded in Q3 2024 but marginally below the 1.68 mbpd achieved in Q2 2025.
The sector recorded 5.84% real growth, only slightly above 5.66% in Q3 2024, but sharply lower than the 20.46% expansion seen in Q2 2025. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector contracted by 5.53%.
Oil contributed 3.44% to real GDP, an improvement on the 3.38% posted in Q3 2024, but still below its 4.05% share in Q2 2025.
Non-Oil Sector: Continued Stability Anchors Growth
The non-oil economy expanded by 3.91% in real terms, outperforming both 3.79% in Q3 2024 and 3.64% in Q2 2025. Key contributors included:
Agriculture
Telecommunications
Trade
Real estate
Financial institutions
Construction
Manufacturing
Non-oil sectors accounted for 96.56% of real GDP in Q3 2025 a slight moderation from 96.62% in Q3 2024 but consistent with longer-term diversification trends.
Context: Q2 2025 Momentum
In the previous quarter, the NBS reported 4.23% real GDP growth in Q2 2025, up from 3.48% in Q2 2024. Nominal GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion, representing a 19.23% year-on-year increase. Although Q3’s growth rate moderated slightly, the underlying data reflects sustained momentum in several strategic sectors.
Outlook
Nigeria’s Q3 2025 growth profile demonstrates a broadening economic base, with stronger contributions from agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and financial services. While oil sector volatility persists, non-oil industries continue to provide a reliable foundation for medium-term expansion.
The pace of reforms, stability in foreign exchange markets, and improvements in energy supply will play critical roles in shaping growth prospects for the final quarter of the year and into 2026.
