Nigeria Rated “Critical” on 2025 Instability Risk Index
Nigeria Rated “Critical” on 2025 Instability Risk Index
A new assessment released by SBM Intelligence, a leading Africa focused geopolitical and socioeconomic research firm, has classified Nigeria as “critical” on its 2025 Instability Risk Index. The index evaluates political, economic, and social stability across multiple African countries. In the latest ranking, Nigeria is identified as one of the most vulnerable nations, reflecting persistent governance challenges, economic strains, and security pressures.
High Risk in Multiple Categories
SBM Intelligence evaluates countries across several major risk clusters including leadership and governance, economic performance, geopolitics, and historical patterns of instability. In the 2025 review, Nigeria scored poorly across all categories. Weak institutions, currency instability, widespread insecurity, and ongoing social tensions contributed to its placement in the “critical” category.
The firm warns that this elevated risk level could further discourage foreign investment, weaken investor sentiment, and complicate long term planning for businesses. Key concerns include regulatory unpredictability, naira volatility, security disruptions, and fragile institutional capacity.
Possible Fallout for Economy, Real Estate, and Investments
Nigeria’s rating poses a particular threat to sectors that depend on predictable policy and stable financing conditions. Real estate, construction, and infrastructure projects could face delayed timelines, higher borrowing costs, and more cautious investor behavior. Reduced risk appetite may limit capital inflows and slow progress on housing supply and urban development.
What Needs to Happen
SBM Intelligence stresses the need for urgent reforms to improve Nigeria’s risk outlook. Strengthening governance systems, improving security, ensuring policy continuity, and enhancing institutional transparency will be key to restoring confidence. Achieving a more stable macroeconomic foundation and reliable regulatory environment will help attract long term capital and support economic growth.
Without significant improvements in governance and security, the report warns that instability could intensify and undermine efforts to stabilise the economy, expand housing delivery, and support sustainable national development.