CBN Projects Positive Outlook for 2026 as Key Economic Indicators Improve

Nigeria may be heading into 2026 with renewed economic confidence. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says the country’s macroeconomic outlook for next year is positive, citing stabilising inflation, healthier foreign exchange conditions, and early signs of stronger investor sentiment.

The assessment was delivered during a strategic briefing to lawmakers, where the CBN reviewed major economic trends and the progress of monetary reforms introduced over the past year.

Inflation Cooling and Growth Strengthening

According to the CBN, inflation has been on a consistent downward trajectory after peaking in late 2024. Headline inflation has slowed significantly, supported by tighter monetary conditions, improved agricultural output, and a gradual easing of pressures in the food sector.

On the growth side, the economy has expanded faster in 2025 than many analysts expected. Activity in sectors like telecommunications, finance, construction, and real estate has helped support the rebound. The CBN noted that this momentum should carry into 2026 if current reforms stay in place and global conditions remain stable.

Foreign Exchange Market Gains Stability

One of the strongest themes in the CBN’s outlook is the stabilisation of Nigeria’s currency market. The gap between the official and parallel markets has narrowed sharply compared to last year, helped by increased dollar supply, stronger reserves, and stricter market discipline.

The naira has held firmer in recent months, and the CBN believes sustained inflows from remittances, export receipts, and investment channels will support a more predictable exchange rate environment in 2026.

Financial System Strengthened by Recapitalisation

The CBN highlighted progress in the ongoing recapitalisation of Nigerian banks. Many institutions have already met or exceeded the new capital requirements, while others are reportedly close to completing their capital-raising plans.

This, the CBN says, will improve the resilience of the banking system and enhance support for credit expansion in key sectors, especially housing, manufacturing, and small businesses.

What the Positive Outlook Means for the Housing Market

For Nigeria Housing Market readers, the implications are significant.

A more stable macroeconomic environment often boosts developer confidence, reduces financing volatility, and improves planning visibility for long-term real estate projects. Lower inflation would also ease pressure on construction costs, mortgage pricing, and rental dynamics.

If the exchange rate remains steady, imported building materials could become less expensive, helping developers better manage project timelines and sales projections.

Risks Still Remain

Despite the upbeat forecast, the CBN cautioned that Nigeria is not entirely insulated from global risks. Oil market fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and climate-related disruptions could still weigh on the pace of recovery.

The bank emphasised that continued policy discipline will be critical in preventing setbacks.

NHM Takeaway

The CBN’s optimism marks a notable shift from the turbulence seen over the past two years. Many of the indicators that matter for Nigeria’s housing and construction sectors are moving in the right direction, though the improvements remain early and fragile.

If Nigeria manages to hold this trajectory into 2026, the real estate sector could enter a more stable and investable phase, supported by better currency conditions, easing inflation, and a stronger financial system.