Fuel Demand Declines as Nigeria Consumes 56.9m Litres of Petrol Daily

Domestic Refining Begins to Reshape Nigeria’s Petrol Market

Nigeria’s average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, declined to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, according to data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The figure represents a decrease from 60.2 million litres per day recorded in January 2026, reflecting shifting supply dynamics within the country’s downstream petroleum sector.

The regulator disclosed the data in its latest market factsheet, noting that Nigeria’s fuel supply structure is evolving as domestic refining capacity gradually expands.

Decline Linked to Changes in Supply Structure

According to the NMDPRA, the drop in consumption marks a notable shift from the traditional supply pattern in which Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol due to limited domestic refining output.

The emergence of large-scale refining capacity particularly from the Dangote Refinery is increasingly influencing supply patterns and market dynamics in the country’s fuel sector.

Industry analysts say the growth of domestic refining capacity could reduce Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products while improving energy security.

Petrol Imports Decline

The NMDPRA report also indicated that petrol imports fell significantly during the period under review. Imports declined by about 25.4 million litres per day, reflecting reduced reliance on foreign supply.

The shift is partly attributed to the increasing availability of locally refined petroleum products, which are gradually entering the domestic market.

Despite the reduction in imports, authorities said Nigeria maintained adequate fuel supply during the period.

Fuel Stock Remains Adequate

According to the regulator, the country maintained approximately 31 days of petrol sufficiency stock in February 2026, indicating that fuel availability remained stable despite the decline in daily consumption.

Adequate stock levels are considered an important indicator of energy security, particularly in a market historically affected by supply disruptions.

Domestic Refineries Still Largely Inactive

While private refining capacity is expanding, most government-owned refineries remained largely inactive during the period.

Facilities in Port Harcourt, Kaduna, and Warri recorded no petrol production in February, although some diesel stocks from previous refining activities continued to be released into the market.

This underscores the continued reliance on a combination of imports and private refining to meet domestic fuel demand.

Diesel Supply Increases

While petrol consumption declined, the report indicated that diesel supply increased significantly, rising to 24.4 million litres per day in February, compared with 18.9 million litres per day in January.

The increase was supported by production from modular refineries and the distribution of previously refined diesel stocks from state-owned facilities.

Implications for Nigeria’s Energy Market

Energy analysts say the latest data reflects a transitional phase in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector as domestic refining capacity gradually expands.

The development could have broader implications for the country’s energy economy, including reduced import bills, improved fuel supply stability, and stronger local participation in petroleum product distribution.

Outlook

Nigeria’s fuel consumption trends will likely continue to evolve as domestic refining projects scale up production and supply chains adjust to new market realities.

For policymakers and investors, the key challenge will be sustaining the momentum in domestic refining while ensuring efficient distribution networks that can meet the country’s growing energy demand.