Dangote Forecasts Naira Appreciation to ₦1,100/$1 in 2026 Strategy
Aliko Dangote, Chairman of the Dangote Group, has issued a bullish forecast for the Nigerian Naira, projecting that the local currency could strengthen to ₦1,100 per US Dollar within the 2026 fiscal year. This optimistic outlook is predicated on the continued scaling of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and its capacity to drastically reduce the nation's reliance on imported petroleum products, which currently accounts for a significant portion of Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) demand.
The Refinery as a Catalyst for Currency Stability
The projection comes as the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in Ibeju-Lekki continues to ramp up production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), diesel, and aviation fuel. According to Dangote, the transition from importing fuel to local production will alleviate the perennial pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) external reserves.
By eliminating the need for billions of dollars in monthly fuel imports, the refinery is expected to create a structural shift in the FX market. Dangote noted that the reduction in dollar demand by oil marketers would naturally lead to the Naira's appreciation in both the official and parallel markets.
"We believe that as the refinery hits full capacity and our export of petrochemicals increases, the pressure on the Naira will subside significantly. A rate of ₦1,100 to the dollar is a realistic target for 2026," Dangote stated during a strategic review of the refinery’s impact on the downstream sector.
Addressing Global Volatility
The billionaire industrialist also highlighted that the refinery’s 2026 strategy includes shielding the domestic market from global oil price volatility. By pricing products in Naira for the domestic market a policy supported by the Federal Government the economy is less susceptible to international supply chain shocks that historically devalued the local currency.
Current market data indicates the Naira has fluctuated between ₦1,400 and ₦1,550 in early 2026. Dangote's forecast represents an approximate 25% appreciation from current levels, a move that would provide much-needed relief to manufacturers and consumers struggling with high inflation.
Economic Implications and Policy Support
Financial analysts suggest that while Dangote’s prediction is ambitious, it aligns with broader macroeconomic goals set by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The bank has recently implemented several reforms aimed at deepening FX liquidity and curbing speculative activities.
Key factors supporting the ₦1,100 target include:
Import Substitution: Significant reduction in the $20 billion annually spent on refined petroleum imports.
Petrochemical Exports: Increased inflows from the export of surplus products to the West African sub-region and European markets.
Domestic Crude Supply: Sustained crude oil supply in Naira to local refineries, reducing the immediate need for dollar-denominated transactions.
The potential appreciation of the Naira to ₦1,100 per dollar would mark a significant turning point for Nigeria’s "Renewed Hope" economic agenda. While global oil prices and internal security remain variables that could impact this trajectory, the operational success of the Dangote Refinery stands as the primary anchor for this currency recovery. For investors and policymakers, the 2026 outlook suggests a period of relative stability if local production targets are met.
